Weekly Outlook | Positive risk sentiment among Dollar weakness

Important events this week:

An important week will follow with important releases for financial markets. Various data from across the globe might have the chance to boost direction in financial markets. After comments from US President in regards to Fed chair Jerome Powell equity markets resumed further upside momentum. The positive risk sentiment can in the currency market, where the AUD remained stable throughout last week.

As usual, the NFP data from the US this week might have the chance to shake up the Dollar, so caution in positioning should be applied.

– AU consumer price index– We start this week with the consumer price index from Australia. On a quarterly basis it is expected that prices will rise0.8% compared to the 0.2% rise in the previous quarter. As the annual figure is still expected to weaken slightly, only a strong discrepancy between the results might cause the market to move.

However, the AUDUSD currency pair is currently trading at interesting levels.

AUDUSD daily chart

As the daily chart above shows, the price remains capped in a sideways trading range. A breakout of this zone should be expected. Monthly charts might suggest, that the upside could continue as the market bounced off the strong support zone at 0.6120. Yet, a retracement in particular towards the end of April might also occur after the strong push higher in April. The index form Australia will be released on the 30^th of April, 2025 at 02:30 CET.

– US core PCE price index– The important release from the US might move markets. The PCE indicator is used as a guidance in particular by the US Central Bank, the Fed, for their interest rate decision. Current data is expected to fall from 0.4% down to 0.1%. Should prices continue to slide this might indeed help the Fed to cut rates more than currently anticipated.

S&P 500 index weekly chart

The S&P 500 index might continue to move higher. The recent bear market might come to an end at least for now. Lower rates should in general boost confidence and investors might start to apply more positive risk sentiment. A break of the 50- moving average currently hovering around the 5,590 area could hence increase more buying momentum. The index form the US will be released on the 30^th of April, 2025 at 15:00 CET.

– US NFP data– the Nonfarm payrolls employment data is expected to show 129.000 newly created jobs during this period. A figure, which rather seems on the lower end. Yet, the recent implementation of tariffs and other US restrictions is likely showing some impact here. Confidence levels in the US economy weakened and corporate spending, which also includes the job sector are likely.

USDJPY weekly chart

The USDJPY currency pair has recently bounced off the important support zone at 140.80. Upside potential in the wide trading range might hence be the result. Positive data might offer the chance that the market could rise towards the 146.00 zone. The index from the US will be published on the 02^nd of May, 2025 at 13:30 CET.