Updated 
Global trade is under pressure in 2025.
Tariffs are making headlines again, reigniting debates about their role in reshaping global trade. Are they a strategic tool or a fast track to economic fallout? Investor and global markets expert Jim Rogers view about tariffs and trade wars.
As Rogers puts it, “Tariffs have not ever done, much to change the world. Unless they lead to war.” This reflects his personal view based on historical trends.
With decades of experience and a deep understanding of financial history, Rogers offers a sobering perspective on the renewed rise of trade wars.
In this article, we explore the cyclical nature of tariffs, their real-world consequences and what the future might hold, through the unfiltered lens of one of the world’s most seasoned contrarian voices.
The Historical Ineffectiveness of Tariffs
Throughout history, from the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of the 1930s to modern-day skirmishes between superpowers, trade wars have consistently missed the mark. The data and outcomes are clear: instead of bolstering long-term economic growth, tariffs tend to distort markets, escalate retaliation, and inflate prices for consumers.
But there’s a darker undertone. As Rogers warns, tariffs don’t just strain economies —they often precede conflict. They polarise global alliances, sow distrust, and in some cases, light the fuse of actual war. When protectionist policies start driving global agendas, the fallout isn’t just economic —it’s geopolitical.
Tariffs as Political Tools, Not Economic Solutions
Tariffs are often dressed up as smart policy, pitched as a negotiation leverage or a way to close trade gaps. But Jim Rogers isn’t buying it. In his view, these moves are more political theatre than economic strategy.
As Jim Rogers stated, “This is probably more serious than the last time” Rogers says, citing a more aggressive trade posture from the US government.
According to Rogers, most tariffs aren’t about fixing deficits or reshaping global trade, they’re about winning votes and serving short-term interests. Politicians roll them out to appease specific constituencies or to look tough on trade, even if the long-term damage outweighs any immediate benefit.
Many economists argue that sustainable economic growth rarely comes from isolationist tactics. They make headlines but rarely make lasting progress.
“Very, very few tariffs or trade wars have been successful in history.”
The Illusion of Reshaping Global Trade
Donald Trump’s tariff-heavy approach is rooted in bold ambition: to rewire global trade in America’s favour and restore trade surplus. But Jim Rogers sees this as economic fantasy, not feasible policy.
Global trade flows are deeply embedded in complex supply chains, consumer preferences, and comparative advantages developed over decades. Slapping on tariffs won’t unwind that overnight, or perhaps ever.
Trade imbalances are widely considered structural and not easily solved by punitive measures. Many experts believe The US consumes more than it produces, and that tariffs alone are unlikely to reverse that without broader economic shifts. In essence, tariffs may create the illusion of action, but they don’t fix the underlying math.
Then vs Now: The Escalating US-China Trade War
The trade tensions between the US and China in 2018 were serious, but in 2025, they’ve become more volatile, more personal, and far less predictable.
Back in 2018, tariffs were framed as leverage. Now, they’re part of a broader, more aggressive strategy. “This is probably more serious than last time,” Roger warns.
What makes the current environment more dangerous is not just the scale of the tariffs, but the unpredictability behind them. Rogers points out that Trump lacks a consistent economic philosophy —he reacts in real time to media and public opinion. That kind of impulsiveness, when applied to the world’s two largest economies, becomes a destabilising force that markets can’t model and businesses can’t plan for.
Read more about the US-China economic tensions and understand how they influence global markets, supply chains, and the broader economic environment.
The Debt Time Bomb and “Sell America” Risk
While tariffs steal headlines, Jim Rogers urges us to watch a deeper fault line: America’s exploding debt. He draws a sharp historical parallel, 100 years ago, Britain was the world’s dominant power. Fifty years later, it was facing financial decline. Rogers believes the US could be heading down a similar path.
“America is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world,” he warns. “And unfortunately, there’s going to come a time when people will “Sell America.”
“It’s unbelievable how deep we are in debt is and how high it continues to grow.”
As debt levels continue to rise and Washington overlooks the long-term implications, Rogers suggests that investor sentiment may eventually shift — with some potentially pulling out of US bonds, moving away from the dollar, and seeking what they perceive as stability elsewhere.
The potential consequences? A weaker dollar, rising yields, and a possible loss of confidence in what has historically been considered a global safe haven. According to Rogers, if that tipping point arrives, it may not be tariffs making headlines, but instead a broader retreat from US financial assets.
Related article: Inflation, Tariffs, and the Fed: What’s Next for the USD?
The High Stakes of Global Trade: Beyond the Tariff War
As we witness the ongoing fluctuations in global trade, the lessons from history remain starkly relevant. While tariffs may seem like a convenient tool for political leaders to wield in negotiations, the long-term economic consequences are rarely positive. Jim Rogers, with his vast expertise, reminds us that tariffs have seldom led to lasting prosperity, and more often than not, have sparked greater conflict.
The notion of reshaping global trade with tariffs is not just flawed by dangerously shortsighted, especially when the real underlying issues, such as structural trade imbalances and unsustainable debt, remain unaddressed.
In today’s world, global trade needs more than just temporary solutions or media-driven policies. It requires a thoughtful, strategic approach that balances short-term interests with long-term stability.
As we move forward, it’s essential to recognise the limits of tariffs and focus on policies that can genuinely drive sustainable economic growth and global cooperation. The future of trade hinges on strategic clarity and informed decisions, not on reactive measures that risk destabilising the global economy.
For those following tariff- related market developments, Vantage offers access to a wide range of CFD products, including major indices, forex pairs, and US shares.
But remember: CFD trading carries a high risk of loss, especially in a world shaped by unpredictable trade policies and mounting debt. Leverage can magnify gains—but it can just as easily amplify losses. Make sure you understand the risks and always trade with discipline.
RISK WARNING : CFDs are complex instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Ensure you understand the risks before trading.
Related Articles:
