Weekly Outlook | Important news might move markets

Important events this week:

Traders will have to digest important data this week. Especially during the quieter summer season these might move markets. Despite the below mentioned news events we also like to mentioned the BoJ interest rate decision. No change in rates is currently being expected yet the Bank of Japan might still cause volatility during the release at the time of the release early on Thursday.

On another note, also crypto markets remain volatile but are expected to continue their way to higher levels. With the positive sentiment in the Nasdaq index, more upside should be seen. Big whales continue to buy into the market, which is expected to still be the case.

– CA – BoC Rate statement– The Bank of Canada is not expected to cut rates. Currently, the interest rate sits at 2.75%. While consumer prices have been rising slightly towards the 3.0% level, there is no change being expected. Furthermore, the current volatile moves in regards to tariffs by the US administration will still cause the Bank to remain on the sidelines for now. A rise in inflation would need them to react. 

USDCAD, weekly chart

Looking at the weekly chart above, the price of the USDCAD currency pair had fallen below the recent trend to the upside. A break of the 1.3575 zone might cause the market to slide further, in favor of the Loonie, while a push to the upside might reignite the bullish momentum. Worth mentioning that the 50- moving average also sits at the technical resistance zone at 1.3900. Only a rate cut is likely to cause the uptrend to continue, while lower prices might be expected. The data will be released on Wednesday, July 30 at 15:45 CET.

– US – FOMC interest rate decision– It is not expected that the FOMC will cut rates during this meeting. Despite potential action twice this year, this weeks’ meeting might offer chances for the Dollar to gear up some steam.

EURUSD, daily chart

While the trend of the currency pair remains strongly bullish, retracements might also happen. A break of the technical resistance zone would cause the continuation. On the other hand, a break of support zone near the 50- moving average at 1.1580 might cause the market to break lower. The wording of Jerome Powell during the press conference will remain key. The data will be released on Wednesday, July 30 at 20:00 CET.

– US- Nonfarm Payrolls– it is expected that only 108.000 new jobs will be added to the economy. A potentially higher reading might hence support the Dollar and furthermore be negative for US indices. The FOMC is then not expected to cut rates anytime soon, if economic data continues to remain strong.

Nasdaq 100, weekly chart

A closer look at the Nasdaq index reveals, that the market might still run higher towards the technical resistance trendline. Only then, some negative momentum might occur. A weaker reading of the news could spark another leg of rising prices, as the FED is expected to rather act soon. The data will be released on Friday, August 01 at 14:30 CET.