Bitcoin, FTSE 100 and Dax hit highs, otherwise FX muted
Updated Updated Thu, 2025 July 10 08:40
* US jobless claims fell for a fourth week during the July 4 holiday
* Goldman warns dollar can quickly trade like risky currency again
* US stocks mixed, FTSE 100 and Dax make fresh record highs
* Bitcoin jumps for a third day, to new all-time highs above $113k
FX: USD found a bid again with more trade news – 50% tariffs on Brazil – and marginally better labour market data, with the weekly initial jobless claims falling again. Deadlines are tight but are being taken as simply Trump trade tactics. Data may become more important in the meantime, with tariff noise wearing thin. September FOMC pricing is still only a bit better than a coin toss (18bps of easing priced in) but money markets continue to anticipate 50bps of cuts by December.
EUR traded around 1.17 as investors wait on any US-EU trade news and potential temporary ‘framework’ agreement. The avoidance of a tariff letter from the US has reassured markets. US yields have pulled back from recent highs which means more support for the single currency. ECB commentary has been neutral, pushing back rate cut calls, though market pricing continues to lean toward easing with around 23bps by year end.
GBP printed a doji candle denoting some indecision with a nigh-on unchanged close. Today’s data could help shape the BoE next meeting on 7 August. A 25bp rate cut is virtually fully priced with just over 50bps in total for 2025. The 50-day SMA at 1.3487 has acted as decent support this year.
JPY also printed a doji with trade tensions still looming over the pair. Markets are hoping for a late agreement after the July 20 upper house elections and ahead of the new 1 August deadline. Uncertainty has forced the BoJ to put off policy tightening, with the next central bank meeting at the end of July.
AUD and NZD were the big outperformers with the former bolstered by ongoing gains in iron and copper prices. Both antipodeans also gained support from speculation that a high-level meeting will be held next week to help revive the Chinese property sector, according to Bloomberg. CAD traders await today’s jobs report – see below for more details.
US stocks: The S&P 500 printed up 0.27% at 6,280, a record close. The Nasdaq settled lower by 0.16% at 22,829. The Dow Jones finished up at 44,651, gaining 0.43%. Stocks were predominantly firmer on Thursday, with the small cap Russell index outperforming, while the Nasdaq lagged with pressure in large-cap stocks weighing. Sectors were predominantly in the green with Consumer Discretionary leading the gains, and only Communication and Tech in the red. Tesla jumped 4.7% on plans to expand its robotaxi service to the San Francisco Bay Area within two months. It also reached out to Arizona regarding certification for operating driverless taxis. Nvidia CEO Huang is reportedly to meet with President Trump on Thursday ahead of Huang’s trip to China. Apple plans a new MacBook Pro, iPhone 17E and iPads by early 2026, according to Bloomberg.
Asian stocks: Futures are mixed. APAC equities traded mostly positive after Wall Street gains amid more tariff letters. The ASX200 rose on mining strength after metal prices gained. The Nikkei 225 bucked the trend amid yen strength. The Shanghai Comp and Hang Seng were marginally in the green with little fresh macro drivers.
Gold continued to trade around the 50-day SMA, now at $3,319. This has been support on a number of occasions this year. It was a tiny range day and the longer this goes on, the bigger eventual breakout will be.
Day Ahead – UK GDP, Canada Jobs
UK growth is expected to print at 0.1% for May, after the 0.3% contraction in April. This comes after a surprisingly strong start to the year – an unsustainable 0.7% q/q growth rate in the first quarter – due to frontloading ahead of possible tariffs. Soft retail sales should reduce services growth in May, amid a cooler labour market and elevated inflation. That said, there was warmer weather, which may have boosted an ongoing pick-up in construction.
Canada is expected to have added barely one thousand jobs which tallies with the BoC’s recent comments that highlighted a weakening labour market, especially in trade-sensitive areas. The jobless rate could rise above 7% with all eyes on the Canada – US trade relationship. Hiring plans, especially export-oriented businesses, have been scaled back according to Governor Mackle. That could shape BoC rate cut expectations with just one more move priced in by the end of the year.
Chart of the Day – USD/CAD consolidating just above cycle lows
USD/CAD is holding within its recent trading range, but technical risks may have shifted a little higher, due to the flatter top and rising base – effectively a wedge pattern – that has developed on the intraday chart. The major is also testing trendline resistance and the 50-day SMA around 1.3747 on the daily chart, with an upside break pointing to gains extending to 1.3792, the June high. But this could just be bearish consolidation with initial support at 1.3637, and the mid-June cycle low at 1.3538 close by if prices roll over.
