Weekly Outlook | Fresh positive sentiment ahead
Updated Updated Tue, 2025 July 1 01:35
Important events this week:
After financial markets have regained back their positive mood last week, fresh upside momentum might now follow. US indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have created new all- time- highs and might now run higher, supported as well by weakness of the Dollar. Geopolitical tensons seem to be easing and potential talks between Iran and the US in regards to the nuclear program might help as well. Gold prices also start to fall as positive risk sentiment returns.
The focus this week should be on the NFP report, which will follow on Thursday. After a very bad ADP- Nonfarm employment change release last month traders will certainly also check this month’s data. In general, the Dollar continues to lose strength and markets might start to retrace especially in the early days in July.
– US- ISM manufacturing PMI– The purchasing manager index from the US might offer more clarity into the state of the US economy. The Flash data last week has been better than expected and in general most data from the US had been positive recently. Hence no reason for the Fed to cut rates anytime soon.
AUDUSD, weekly chart
Based on the weekly chart above the AUDUSD currency pair is gearing up fresh momentum. Should the 0.6500 zone hold and won’t break to the downside again more upside might be seen. The positive risk sentiment is currently also being reflected in the currency pair. If stocks rise typically also the AUD is gearing up momentum. The PMI data might be crucial: any stronger reading could cause the Dollar to resume strength as well and hence pull the pair back down. The data will be released on Tuesday, July 01 at 16:00 CET.
– US- Nonfarm Payrolls– This month’ employment report will follow on Thursday due to the upcoming 04th of July Independence Day, which is a public holiday in the United States. It is expected that 120.000 jobs were created to the US economy. A stronger reading might hence push the Dollar to the upside, while a weaker number could cause the Greenback to continue with its weakness.
XAGUSD, monthly chart
The Silver market might be interesting currently. Based on the monthly chart above, prices have been soaring yet remain capped at a technical resistance zone. A break of this area could offer fresh upside in July, should the weakness of the Dollar continue. However, in particular the early days of a month might offer a retracement of a given trend, which could also be the case here. The data will be released on Thursday, July 03 at 14:30 CET.
